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Over the last few weeks, something extraordinary has come to light inside one of the world’s most powerful financial institutions. BlackRock, the largest asset manager on earth, just failed a credit test on one of its flagship private-credit CLO funds. And the failure is so severe that BlackRock is injecting its own money into the fund just to stop investors from running for the exit.
This isn’t a small bookkeeping issue. It’s a flashing red siren in a $1.2 trillion corner of the financial system that looks uncomfortably similar to the instruments that fuelled the 2008 global financial crisis. And now that the first cracks have appeared, the situation is deteriorating fast.
CLOs: The Same Game, New Label
To understand why this matters, we need to look at the core product in question: collateralised loan obligations (CLOs). A CLO bundles hundreds of corporate or institutional loans into a single package and then sells slices of that package to investors. On paper, many of these slices are stamped with top-tier credit ratings like AAA or AA. But dig inside and you discover that only a fraction of the underlying loans are actually that safe.
If this story sounds familiar, it should. It’s the same structure used for mortgage-backed securities before the 2008 collapse, just repackaged with a fresh acronym. Back then, banks bundled risky home loans and convinced the world they were rock solid. Today, those same tactics have simply migrated to corporate debt.
Why BlackRock Went All-In
So why is BlackRock, a firm that prides itself on risk management and index funds, neck-deep in this? Because private credit, unregulated, opaque, and highly profitable, has exploded in size. Unlike public markets, where prices constantly move and must reflect reality, private credit lets asset managers “mark their own homework.” They assign values to their own assets with almost no third-party oversight. Investors only know what BlackRock claims their investments are worth.
And BlackRock has every incentive to say everything is going great.
But reality is catching up.
The Collapse Behind the Curtain
US bankruptcies are now hitting levels not seen since the global financial crisis. Private credit is taking blow after blow, with billion-dollar failures spreading across the market. Yet somehow, BlackRock continues to report rising values inside CLOs, even in the lowest-rated tranches. In one BBB-rated CLO, every single loan was reported to have increased in value over the last six months, despite deteriorating economic data and widespread distress.
How is that possible? Because the “market value” BlackRock reports isn’t based on trades or prices. It’s based on their internal notional valuations. There is no real market to check them against.
And this illusion only lasts until someone stops paying their loan. Then BlackRock is forced, finally, to admit the truth.
Which brings us back to the credit test failure.
The AA-Rated Fund That Ran Out of Cash
The CLO fund at the centre of the crisis supposedly carried an AA rating, the second-highest rating you can get. Yet several of its loans have now been marked down to zero after the borrowing companies went bankrupt. The fund no longer had enough cash on hand to meet requirements. That’s when BlackRock quietly stepped in with fresh capital, essentially bailing out its own product to prevent a stampede.
If the “safe” AA fund is blowing up, what does that imply for the dozens of single-A and B-rated CLOs BlackRock has also issued?
A Pattern Too Big to Ignore
This isn’t an isolated event. We’ve already seen scandals and collapses across the debt markets: Greensill, Zips Car Wash, First Brands Group, Renovo, Western Alliance, Zion Bancorp, and the most egregious, Tricolor Holdings.
Every time one of these implodes, billions are quietly written off, and we learn once again that the ratings and valuations were completely detached from reality.
The Truth No One Wants to Say Out Loud
Across the financial system, trillions of dollars in loans are being carried at inflated values. These “assets” look healthy only because firms like BlackRock choose not to revalue them honestly. Private credit’s opacity enables this deception, but it doesn’t remove the underlying risk.
The moment borrowers can’t pay, the whole edifice cracks.
And now, with BlackRock’s first major credit failure exposed, the dominos may finally be starting to fall.
What Next?
It’s almost certain that we’re headed straight towards another global financial crisis, with private credit markets being the catalyst most likely to start the fire sale.
And just as we saw in 2008, the great bailouts are sure to be used to protect those who forced these issues into existence in the first place.
And that poses a problem for us all. Why should we pay when they are the problem? Why should our taxes rise, in order to bailout the corrupt financiers causing the problems in the first place?
We shouldn’t. I won’t. I’ve spent the last 5 years protecting myself by diversifying my incomes and assets around the world so they can’t be raided by the government, and I’ve done it all entirely legally.
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