Over the last three decades, one financial model has quietly dominated everything. Cheap money. Globalization. Ever rising asset prices fueled by central banks.
That era is ending.
We just lived through the longest and strongest bull market in American history, driven almost entirely by Federal Reserve policy. But the steam is running out, and the cracks are no longer subtle. What comes next will not look like a normal correction. It looks far more like a reset.
The most obvious stress point is AI.
This is no longer speculation or fringe commentary. Harvard economists have now stated clearly that AI stocks meet the formal definition of a bubble. The S&P 500 semiconductor index meets that definition too. Research firms are openly telling investors to avoid large parts of the sector.
And yet most people are still massively exposed.
If you own the S&P 500, you already own the AI bubble. Nvidia alone has recently approached 10 percent of the entire index. Add in Broadcom, Micron, Lam Research, KLA, Monolithic Power Systems, and others most investors have never heard of, and AI now represents roughly a quarter of the S&P 500’s total value. Almost all of last year’s gains came from this narrow group.
Meanwhile, classic bubble indicators are flashing red. Market cap to GDP is at all time highs. Concentration risk is at records. Valuations sit near levels only seen at the peak of the dot com era and during the liquidity flood after 2020.
Even investors like Howard Marks, who correctly warned about the dot com bubble, are positioning defensively and openly criticizing today’s valuations.
At the same time, something else is happening quietly.
Gold, silver, and copper are having their best years in decades.
This is not random. Three deep structural shifts are colliding. Deglobalization and rising geopolitical risk. A permanent shift away from zero interest rates. And growing awareness among investors that the old playbook no longer works.
There is also one final risk almost no one is prepared for. The unwind of passive investing.
More than half of market capital today is effectively blind. It does not analyze earnings or valuations. It simply buys. That works on the way up. It becomes dangerous when flows reverse through retirements, job losses, or panic.
When that happens, the same feedback loop that pushed markets higher can pull them down fast.
This is why I have been quieter than usual recently. I have been building a new investing playbook around these changes.
And this week, I am sharing it.
There are only 200 live spots available and the last time we ran a live class like this we ran out of spaces within 12 hours of our announcement.
If you want to understand what is really changing before the reset becomes obvious to everyone, now is the time.
Click the link here to register and save your spot for free: https://event.webinarjam.com/x6xq5/register/oo8x9cmr
I hope to see you there.
Stay stoic,
Max